What is killing the Vols’ offensive production?
I’m simply stealing material today (but also giving credit). These data come from a post on VolNation Forums (by a user with the masterful name of “Dick Tugnuts.”). Apparently, Mr. Tugnuts did us all a favor by doing some homework in order to sift out our play-calling tendencies as dictated by Mike Bajakian and his offensive staff. They are categorized by the down situation…
On first downs:
- 49% pass
- 50% run
- And the QB is sacked 1% of the time
On second downs:
- 50% pass
- 44% run
- And the QB is sacked 6% of the time
On third downs:
- 63% pass
- 23% run
- And the QB is sacked 14% of the time.
Obviously, the interesting part is the third down situations… and even though no data are given regarding how many yards are left for a first down, it is reasonable to assess that the Vols have far too many yards to go for a first down in third down situations.
And that is likely killing us against good competition.
And the post also gave these interesting stats for third down situations by opponent…
- Oklahoma sacked us 22% of the time
- Florida sacked us 24% of the time
- Chattanooga sacked us 23% of the time.
- Ole Miss sacked us 20% of the time.
So much for thinking that the high sack rate on third down was only against quality opposition.
Furthermore, on third down…
- We ran the most against Georgia (31% of the time)
- We ran the least against Florida (6% of the time)
More situational data are needed to fully flush out the picture, but it goes without saying that if we are third-and-long all night against Alabama on Saturday, we are not sniffing a win, or even a competitive final score.
And I think you could easily say the same thing against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and, yes, even Vanderbilt.
Third-and-long for the rest of the season will give us a record 8- or 9-loss season.