What is killing the Vols’ offensive production?

I’m simply stealing material today (but also giving credit). These data come from a post on VolNation Forums (by a user with the masterful name of “Dick Tugnuts.”). Apparently, Mr. Tugnuts did us all a favor by doing some homework in order to sift out our play-calling tendencies as dictated by Mike Bajakian and his offensive staff. They are categorized by the down situation…

On first downs:

  • 49% pass
  • 50% run
  • And the QB is sacked 1% of the time

On second downs:

  • 50% pass
  • 44% run
  • And the QB is sacked 6% of the time

On third downs:

  • 63% pass
  • 23% run
  • And the QB is sacked 14% of the time.

Obviously, the interesting part is the third down situations… and even though no data are given regarding how many yards are left for a first down, it is reasonable to assess that the Vols have far too many yards to go for a first down in third down situations.

And that is likely killing us against good competition.

And the post also gave these interesting stats for third down situations by opponent…

  • Oklahoma sacked us 22% of the time
  • Florida sacked us 24% of the time
  • Chattanooga sacked us 23% of the time.
  • Ole Miss sacked us 20% of the time.

So much for thinking that the high sack rate on third down was only against quality opposition.

Furthermore, on third down…

  • We ran the most against Georgia (31% of the time)
  • We ran the least against Florida (6% of the time)

More situational data are needed to fully flush out the picture, but it goes without saying that if we are third-and-long all night against Alabama on Saturday, we are not sniffing a win, or even a competitive final score.

And I think you could easily say the same thing against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and, yes, even Vanderbilt.

Third-and-long for the rest of the season will give us a record 8- or 9-loss season.



3 responses to “What is killing the Vols’ offensive production?”

  1. rockytop78 says :

    Was there a breakdown on where all of the first-, second-, and third-down passes went and to whom? I wonder how many were thrown to the tight ends, how many to wide receivers on bubble screens (or flare passes, as they called them back in the day), how many to backs coming out of the backfield, and how many for vertical yardage. Way too many bubble screens, I would wager; and not enough stuff to the tight ends.

  2. Rick says :

    They are in too many 3rd and Long situations. When that happens, Worley might as well take a knee because he is going to hit the ground.

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